It seems like it is a high season for exciting papers on climate change and biodiversity. As results are usually more interesting in context of other results, I wanted to bring together some of the season’s highlights.

Beale et al. (2013) demonstrate that protected areas have been reducing land degradation and, by maintaining high habitat quality, enabling bird range expansions in Tanzanian savanna ecosystems. In their study system, 80% of colonisations in newly suitable range have happened in protected areas. These observations agree with the findings of Thomas et al. (2012) (see also discussion on Thomas et al. in our blog!) and highlight the relevance of protected areas in facilitating climate change adaptation.

Promoting connectivity of protected areas is the most often-cited measure for allowing biodiversity adaptation to climate change. Lawler et al. (2013) present an interesting means of assessing which areas are most important for providing connectivity between suitable areas of present and future. They combine projections of bioclimatic envelope models, human impact on the landscape and movement models in their analysis, highlighting the need to preserve the remaining continuous and relatively intact areas.

Range expansions to new suitable areas are a key response that enables species persistence. The anticipated impacts of climate change on protected area effectiveness are not, however, only about range expansions. As climate conditions become unsuitable for species within protected areas, they may become less effective in protecting those species. Such concerning trends have been already observed in the Finnish protected area network and are projected to take place in Europe.

Importantly, Warren et al. (2013) demonstrate that climate change mitigation can greatly reduce the pressure on biodiversity: losses of local climatic suitability are less severe in those climate scenarios where greenhouse emissions are reduced rapidly. Limiting climate change better allows for responses to changing conditions which allow species persistence.

Climate change impact studies have so far focused mainly on the size and location of climatically suitable range, the “bioclimatic envelope”, and quantifying the exposure of species to climate change. However, species also differ in their sensitivity to changes and their adaptive capacity. Foden et al. (2013) assessed the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adpative capacity of nearly 17,000 species and showed that these characteristics imply different responses to changes, and vary in space. Like Warren et al., Foden et al. conclude that low climate change scenarios also have lower risk for biodiversity.

Understanding such impacts is necessary for designing effective conservation actions to make species and ecosystems more resilient or able to adapt to climate change. We still do not understand well how climate change impacts on individuals, populations and species translate into changes in ecosystem functions and processes, for example. While knowledge gaps remain to be filled, current understanding could and should be used to improve conservation policy and action.