We discussed this paper in our journal club in late September 2011. In short, the paper looks at potential deforestation scenarios projected for the Amazon basin, evaluates how the projected deforestation rates drive future population declines of birds and then re-estimates the threat categories of species based on IUCN Red List criteria. Species richness of the “soon to be threatened” species are then put on map and compared with the projected spatial patterns of deforestation and current reserve networks. This way the authors identify i) currently important areas that have high number of species that are going to become threatened by future forest loss, ii) “crisis areas”, i.e. areas that are going to be deforested and have high richness of future threatened species, iii) “refugia”, i.e. areas with high species richness that will remain intact also in the future, and iv) irreplaceable sites of future threatened species. The authors then report gaps in the current reserve network and point out recommendations for future conservation actions.

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