by Līga Rudzāne
Is it possible that the war in one country has an impact on parliamentary elections in a different country? A clear answer to this question does not exist but when examining the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2022 Latvian parliamentary elections, a correlation can be found, especially when analyzing these events from a Latvian perspective.
The war on Latvia’s doorstep restored the Latvian collective memory of traumatic history.
The main principle that links these events is the cultural trauma of Latvian people from the decades-long Soviet occupation of Latvia. This trauma has left a significant scar on the Latvian people and has changed their perceptions of Russia for generations. The scar was starting to heal until it was ripped open again when on 24 February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine. The war on Latvia’s doorstep restored the Latvian collective memory of traumatic history.
In the Constitution of the Republic of Latvia, it is written that “The people of Latvia protect their sovereignty, national independence, territory, territorial integrity and democratic system of government of the State of Latvia”. Regardless of these written values that the Latvian people and the Latvian state stand for, Russia still tries to question them and is keen to undermine these values’ influence in Latvia.
One of the covert tactics used by Russia to retain its influence in Latvia is using soft power in Latvian politics. Pro-Russia political parties have put in major efforts to create a trusting relationship with Latvian society, particularly with the part of society that is Russian-speaking.
An excellent illustration of pro-Russia political parties’ success in achieving the results is the Latvian parliamentary elections of 2018. The well-known pro-Russian Social Democratic Party Harmony won the elections by receiving 19,80% of all of the votes cast throughout all of Latvia and obtained 23 out of 100 seats in parliament – public support for this party was obvious.
With regard to the Latvian parliamentary elections of 2022 that took place on 1 October 2022, the situation was quite different. Harmony received only 4,81% of all votes cast. According to Article 38 of Law on the Election of the Saeima (Latvian Parlament) “The lists of candidates bearing the same name which have received less than five percent of the total number of votes cast in the entirety of Latvia, regardless of the number of constituencies for which these lists of candidates have been nominated, shall be excluded from the distribution of seats in the Saeima”. Therefore 4,98% did not allow Harmony to pass the threshold necessary for representation in Latvian parliament for the next four years.
Harmony is not the only pro-Russia party that participated in the Latvian elections this year. For Stability!, also a pro-Russia political party, received better results and managed to receive 6,80% of all votes, obtaineding 11 seats in parliament. It is evident that while pro-Russia players reorganized between 2018 and 2022, the representation of pro-Russia ideas in the Latvian parliament did not disappear.
Although support from Latvian society for pro-Russia political parties is still noticeable, it has undoubtedly lessened. The question arises – what was the cause for these changes in Latvian society’s attitude towards pro-Russia parties?
Even if Latvians are unable to go to the battlefield and fight with Ukrainians, they use their power to show their collective attitude towards Russian aggression in other ways.
It can be argued that the cause of this is the fact that elections were held simultaneously with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Latvian people remember the history, they remember the cultural trauma, and they remember the horrors conducted by the Soviet Union occupation regime. This memory unites Latvian people in condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine, rises Latvian national spirit and willingness to protect the values written in the Constitution of Latvia, as well as deny Russia from having an impact on the Latvian legislative body. Even if Latvians are unable to go to the battlefield and fight with Ukrainians, they use their power to show their collective attitude towards Russian aggression in other ways.
Līga Rudzāne is a soon-to-graduate Bachelor’s degree student of International Economics and Commercial Diplomacy at University of Latvia. Līga’s study interests include wide rande of interdisciplinary economic fields connected to law, democracy, human rights, security, welfare and diplomacy. In addition to studies, Līga has started her internship in Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia. Līga is socially and politically active young woman who has been elected as member of 10th Youth Parliament and participated in programme “Future Leaders Academy”.
This blog is a part of a blog series written by the BAMSE Tartu intensive course students. The blog series analyses the impact of crises on the politics of history, challenges of democracy, biopolitics and energy security. This blog is belongs to the challenges of democracy part of the blog series. Read more about the blog series on Bamse News & Events website.