Research implementation plan and timetable

The research project will be implemented in co-operation between University of Helsinki’s (HY) faculty of educational sciences research unit focusing on the sociology and politics of education (KUPOLI, https://blogs.helsinki.fi/kupoli-unit/), Itla children’s foundation (Itsenäisyyden juhlavuoden lastensäätiö, https://itla.fi/) and faculty of educational sciences (HY) research community focusing on diversity, multilingualism and social justice (https://www.helsinki.fi/en/faculty-educational-sciences/research/researchers-and-research-communities/diversity-multilingualism-and-social-justice-education).

The research project is part of The Right to learn development programme of the Ministry of Education and Culture. The Right to learn development programmes aim to secure an equal start for learning by improving quality and equality in early childhood education and care (ECEC) and comprehensive education. The programmes are implemented between 2020 and 2022. The research project begins at 1.9.2021 and ends at 31.12.2023. The research project will answer four research questions:

Research question 1: The current effect of demographic trends on early childhood-, preschool- and comprehensive education?

Family policies and the organization of ECEC, preschool- and comprehensive education will be highly affected by the changes in population in the coming years. At the end of 2019, ECEC organized by the municipalities had approximately 193 000 children below the comprehensive education age. In family day-care, the number of children was 16 000 (THL 2020). Compared to the other Nordic countries, the participation rate of children in ECEC in Finland was low and related to the socio-economic status of the parents (Karila et al., 2017). Demographic trends, including the concentration of population to the growth centres, can have an adverse effect on the participation rate to ECEC in net emigration municipalities and create difficulties related to the organization of services.

The number of pupils in comprehensive education and the need for ECEC are strongly reflected in the demographic trends in age groups of children. According to the population prediction in 2019 by Statistics Finland, the number of below 7-year-olds will decrease by 17 percentages between the years 2019 and 2040, and the number of children in comprehensive education (7- to 15-year-olds) will decrease by 23,6 percentages (Statistics Finland, Statfis’ population projection). When examined by the education level, the need for comprehensive education will decrease strongly in all municipalities during the 2020s; only in the largest cities will the need for comprehensive education rise during the following decades. In most municipalities, the number of pupils in the comprehensive education will decrease by over a quarter, and in some municipalities by 2030, the number of new pupils starting the first grade can be less than half of the current age group.

The predicted and occurred decrease in the size of the age groups of the children is a result of the substantial decrease in the birth rate during the 2010s. The total fertility rate (TFR) decreased by 28 percentages between 2010 and 2019; TFR decrease occurred strongly in all Finnish municipalities during this time (Statistics Finland, Statfis’ fertility). TFR decrease can especially be seen during the 2020s in comprehensive education. The prediction made by Statistics Finland relies on TFR staying at the same level as of 2019, but historically there have been significant differences in TFR between the years. The development of fertility will strongly affect the need for educational services: if TFR returned to the level of 2010 during the 2020s, the number of pupils starting the first grade would rise back to the level of 2010s. On the other hand, if the current falling trend continues, it will lead to an even more intense decrease in the size of the age groups.

In addition to the demographic trends, changing state-municipality -governance relationship has since the 1990s separated the institutional positions of ECEC and preschool- and comprehensive education organization. The movement towards a new, more differentiated governance system of comprehensive education has happened during the 1990s because of the impacts of the new Basic Education Act (L 628/1998), the introduction of ‘lump sum budgeting’ for schooling (L 705/1992) and more flexible National Core Curriculum (1994) (Kalalahti & Varjo, 2020). Together, the acts of progress have emphasized the meaning of the municipalities’ decisions, potentially challenging the fulfilment of children’s rights and equity of education on the national level. Despite its’ political importance, extensive knowledge on the municipal level about planned changes of the service network, regional co-operation, or movement of population effect on children does not exist (Kalalahti & Varjo, 2021).

Research question 2. Municipal strategies and needs to address population effects on ECEC, preschool, and comprehensive education?

During the last decades, the number of municipalities has decreased due to the consolidation of municipalities. The Finnish Parliament decided in June 2021 regarding the rearrangement of social- and health services, which will cause significant changes to the municipal operation sectors. Municipal education and culture sectors (especially preschool- and comprehensive education and ECEC) will therefore be one of the most significant branches within the organization of the municipalities. Decisions about service networks will be made in municipalities and boards, municipal governments, and city councils. The picture drawn from the movement of population-related knowledge-based management and the options in regional organization policies is uneven. The preliminary research results by this research group in this research project indicate that demographic changes and their related effects have a varying recognition in the 294 municipalities in continental Finland: migration is considered approximately in two-thirds of the municipal strategies, as a part of enhancing population growth or as a challenge. The effects of birth rate and its decrease are not that common in the municipal strategies: only 48 municipals mention birth rate in its’ municipal strategy, although the effects of the decrease in birth rate have been very significant in most parts of the country during the 2010s. Slightly less than one-third of continental Finland municipalities do not take the movement of population into account at all.

Research question 3. The effects of population movement on children’s rights and cultural and educational equality and the observation of the effects?

Increasing and implementing the evaluation of child effects has been a part of multiple government programmes during the last decades. Despite this, the evaluation of child effects has not gone forward in the Finnish Government’s actions. The progress has also been slow at the municipal level, and it depends on the “pioneering municipalities.” International comparative studies show that the evaluation of child effects is developed furthest in the countries that are also furthest advanced in implementing the UN children’s rights agreement. For the time being, Finland has not been considered as one of the pioneering countries, but there has been hope about a change, at least of all now, when the national Finnish child strategy got accepted at the beginning of the year 2021. Itla children’s foundation has published multiple reports and policy recommendations during the last years, which have examined the present state of the evaluation of child effects and development needs in Finnish preparation of legislation and political decision making regarding both state administration and municipal sector.

Research question 4. Point of view of children and adolescents?

During the 21st century, the development of services has emphasized the point of view where children and adolescents are seen as active participants, and they have been included in different planning and decision-making processes. UN convention on the rights of the children 12th article (SopS 59–60/1991) and Finnish legislation (e.g., Constitution of Finland 6 §, Local Government Act 22 §, Youth Act 24 §) declare that children and adolescents need to be able to participate and influence the matters related to themselves as inhabitants of municipalities and users of services in line with their development. In other words, children and adolescents should be part of public administration decision-making when deciding and developing actions regarding services they use, for example, ECEC and different levels of education. Research-based knowledge about children and adolescent participation in decision-making processes is still scarce at the international level. (Stenvall, Kurki & Virtanen 2021).

Inclusion is often ostensible and incidental, therefore children and adolescents have very few real opportunities to have an impact, or the inclusion represents the experiences and views of certain groups, and the inclusion of marginalized groups does not occur (Itla 2020). Additionally, inclusion is often understood narrowly and strictly from the point of view of democracy. The point of view of democracy is important, but as just necessary is the point of view of communication, in which case a strong and positive connection towards children and adolescents is maintained, and their interests, worries, and causes of joy are taken to account (Kalland 2020). Therefore, the views of different age groups about the movement of population effects and the consequent changes in service network and new alternative ways of education, especially in the rural areas, need research-based inclusive practises. Special attention needs to be paid to the children and adolescents in a vulnerable position or who do not actively seize the opportunities of inclusion and are easily overlooked. These children, adolescents, and families are, for example, those in need of special support, immigrants, and those whose life situation is challenging. When researching the implementation of educational reform, it has been found that the attitude and support of adults are crucial for the inclusion of children and adolescents in goal-oriented public decision-making (Uziely 2018).

Description of the research phases

The current and predicted effects of demographic trends and movement of population to ECEC and preschool- and comprehensive education will be analysed during the research project. The analysis will provide new information about the movement of population effects on organization and availability of educational services from the point of view of educational and cultural rights, basic rights of the individual and children’s rights, and how the changes affect the UN goal of sustainable environment number 4 from the Finnish perspective.

The research questions will be answered by three sub-projects. The sub-projects are wide operational entities that will organize the project’s research work. One of the sub-projects will collect data for answering multiple research questions.

Sub-project 1: Overall national view of the effects of population movement on organization types of ECEC, preschool- and comprehensive education

The sub-project will create an overall view of the effects of movement of population on the organization of ECEC, preschool- and comprehensive education on various kinds of municipalities (rural areas, municipalities with population loss, growth centres, cities). The overall view will be built on statistical data and qualitative survey material. The background of the analysis for this sub-project will describe various international policies and practises that have attempted to answer the difficulties originating from (positive or negative) population movement. The background research is based on benchmark data. The focus of the sub-project will be on the measures which react /are planned as a reaction on the effects of the movement of population on ECEC, preschool- and comprehensive education (such as adjustments on the service network, collaboration within municipalities, questions related on the availability of teachers and the need of teachers). Other important research topics are the collaboration that crosses the municipal borders and is caused by the movement of population and the evaluation of child effects concerning the wellbeing of children and the European Child Guarantee.

The sub-project will answer for its part on the research questions 1 and 2 and create data for research question 3. The sub-project will acquire 1) benchmark data regarding the needs of change caused by movement of population and the policies and practises developed for answering them 2) statistical data of the effects of movement of the population for years 2020-2040 in three different population fertility scenarios in all municipalities and 3) a questionnaire aimed for all education providers in Finland with complementary interviews.

The leader of this sub-project is Assistant Professor Janne Varjo (janne.varjo@helsinki.fi).

Sub-project 2: Municipal plans and solutions

The aim of sub-project 2 is to create detailed qualitative information on recognition of the effects of movement of population on ECEC, preschool- and comprehensive education in various kinds of municipalities. The results of this sub-project will strengthen municipal competence and capability to observe the movement of the population. At the same time, the sub-project will create knowledge about the meaning of practices in the realization of children’s rights and educational and cultural equality.

The sub-project will be implemented as a case-study in six different municipalities. The aim of the case municipalities is to create a comprehensive picture of municipal education policies in various local government structures, with a particular emphasis on rural areas and cities and the situation of demographic trends (municipalities with population loss, growth centres). An additional aim of selecting the case municipalities is to consider the geographical coverage, different language structures, the effects of immigration, and various kinds of municipal structures, for example, municipal mergers.

The sub-project will seek to answer the following questions: What kind of changes are the municipals planning to implement (including how the municipalities follow demographic changes, what are the adjustments for service network and what are the related needs, what is the situation of local municipal co-operation and how has the municipal prepared for questions related on the availability of teachers and the need of teachers)? What kind of inter-municipal collaboration and division of labour are seen in the future? What kind of government level and legislation solutions are needed in the future? In addition, the views of 11 to 16-year-old children and adolescents about the effects of demographic changes are investigated (The changes of service network and composition of everyday life, especially in rural areas). What kind of solutions do they see for the organization of education in the remote areas (making distance education better versus school transportation)? How could the service network support the children and adolescents in the best way possible in the rural areas?

The sub-project will utilize the actor-network theory (e.g., Latour 2005; Lämsä ym. 2021). The analysis will also acknowledge the factors that enable or prevent the aim for change in municipalities when the solutions are sought. The analysis results may help the municipal consider the preconditions that are necessary when making plans regarding reforms related to demographic changes.

The data will contain: 1) municipal level documentary material (strategies, economy- and action plans, decisions about service network), 2) theme interview material (ECEC and education supervisors, politicians), and 3) Sensemaker -tool material from children/adolescents. The interviews and hearings are based on the material from sub-project 1.

The leader of this sub-project is Professor Petri Virtanen (petri.virtanen@itla.fi)

Sub-project 3: Equity, children’s rights, and the evaluation of child effects

The target of this sub-project are the effects of changes in service network and people and especially the viewpoints of children: What kind of child effects will the changes of service network have on the wellbeing of children? Changes of service network are national and picked for this case-study. (Virtanen, Ristikari & Niemelä 2022). How does the service network influence the wellbeing and life of people, with the particular emphasis on the child effects of these changes? How does the European Child Guarantee appear in the life of the children?

The sub-project will create criteria and indicators for evaluating the child effects (chapter 4.). Building the criteria and ways of implementation with keeping an eye on systemic changes in service network in the future: Operations model for the renewal of the service network with principles of anthropocentrism. What kind of operations model should be built so that the future changes in ECEC, preschool- and comprehensive education networks would be done with considering anthropocentrism views of government and public services? (Stenvall & Virtanen 2021; 2022; Stenvall ym. 2021; Virtanen, Ristikari & Niemelä 2022.)

The data for sub-project 3. will be collected as a part of hearings of children and adolescents in sub-project 2. The other dataset will be composed by delfoi-technique from specialists’ panels. The sub-project will utilize all materials collected during the research project when creating the criteria and indicators for evaluating child effects (chapter 4). A strong point of view of this sub-project is the realization of the rights of children and adolescents and how they can be secured from the point of view of this data. The sub-project will answer research questions 3. and 4.

The leader of this sub-project is Professor Mirjam Kalland (mirjam.kalland@helsinki.fi)

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